OCNZ collaborated with American economist Professor Peter Cramton and his market research team at the University of Cologne and the University of Maryland to explore the price elasticity of demand of UK households, measuring how responsive consumers were to price between July 2020 and July 2021, using half-hourly individual-household data. Electricity markets balance supply and demand with price. Historically, this price response has come almost completely from supply. However, when much of supply is intermittent or inflexible, price responsive demand becomes essential for reliability and resiliency. The research sample included customers with a dynamic rate which tracks wholesale cost, in addition to flat-rate customers used to control for weather and other factors.
It was found that a 1% increase in price reduces demand by 0.26%. This elasticity is larger for consumers who own low-carbon technologies. This price response is sufficient to maintain system balance in extreme events, even when most consumers are unresponsive. Regulators can encourage price responsive demand through choice of retail offerings and subsidise enabling technologies. They can also therefore protect consumers with mandated hedging in dynamic plans. Low-income households would benefit most of all from such policies.
Homes accounted for 21% of total greenhouse gas emissions and 35% of total energy consumption in the UK in 2020. Natural gas is the most common heating fuel in domestic buildings, covering 80% of domestic heat demand in the UK. The deployment of heat pumps represents a major opportunity to decarbonise the way we heat our properties. One of the major reasons for its slow uptake is the high up-front costs of heat pump systems compared to gas boilers. The OCNZ analysis looked at 30m UK properties in order to estimate the distribution of costs to retrofit an air source heat pump – rather than focusing on the cost for an 'average' household which currently dominates discussions.
It was found that a £4,000 subsidy, as proposed under the Clean Heat Grant consulted on by government, could lead to the uptake of around 230,000 heat pumps per annum. Following the UK Government's Heat & Buildings Strategy announcement in October 2021, OCNZ updated their modelling to reflect the £5,000 subsidy confirmed in the new £450m Boiler Upgrade Scheme. The research showed that actual cumulative demand for heat pump installations over the 3-year duration of the grant could be nearer to 560,000 households – i.e. more than six times the 90,000 homes which would be covered by the £5,000 available via the £450m scheme.
For more information about Octopus Centre For Net Zero, you can visit their website: OCNZ.
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